Ralph Nader has slavery reparations on his platform, which makes me think he's not serious. If he thought he could win he wouldn't even say that.
Hemingway is a baby when he turns up in Paris, but he's an ambitious baby. And he has the talent. And he's there to stage his breakthrough. So many of the expats who were there at that time were there to do precisely that. It was an ambition-fueled town.