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I still follow that model: just go hard every day, and take it one step at a time.

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George Friedman

Now if you can recognize and memorize a grandmaster's game, and you have the respect to understand [Zimbabwean president Robert] Mugabe who has survived past anyone's expectations, and make the simple assumption it wasn't an accident, and you understand why he did what he did, now you're ready to predict. . . The key to forecasting is to understand both the constraints nations are under and the manner in which the struggle for power shapes leaders.